John Buchard
November 17, 2024

Former President Donald Trump dances on stage after a campaign rally on August 30, 2024.The Trump Transition Is Winning Good Marks

If you feel happy and tranquil after Donald Trump’s win on Election Day, know that you are not alone. The Trump Boom Is Underway and It’s 58 Days Before Inauguration.

American households and businesses are much more peaceful and hopeful this time around. Polling released by Pew Research on Friday shows that 70 percent of Americans are really or somewhat optimistic that the shift to the Trump administration will go smoothly. Likewise, most Americans have a positive assessment of Trump’s post-election conduct.

A 53 percent majority of Americans say they approve of the president-elect’s plans for the country. When asked if they approved of Trump’s conduct post-election, 53 percent answered affirmatively. That’s better than the 40 percent who stated they approved of Trump’s cabinet choices in November 2016 and the 41 percent who said they approved of the task he had carried out in describing his policies and plans for the future.

There are the usual partisan differences in how people react to the election. As recently as October, according to Pew, 10 percent of Republicans said they were satisfied with the country’s state. Now, 35 percent are pleased. Democrats have seen their complete satisfaction slip from 38 percent to 24 percent.

The University of Michigan’s customer sentiment survey showed a substantial increase in economic optimism among Republicans, while Democrats experienced a reduction in hope. Republican expectations increased substantially from 61.4 to 89.2, marking the highest level since October 2020, whereas Democrat expectations decreased from 93.1 to 75.4. Independents’ views stayed relatively consistent. Consequently, the expectations index surged by 3.8 percent, causing a general enhancement in customer sentiment despite the wear and tear in the current economic conditions.

How does this compare to four years earlier? When Biden won the election, consumer sentiment fell. The current conditions index improved slightly, but the expectations element decreased substantially. Maybe counterintuitively, Democrat views of existing conditions fell from October 2020 to November 2020, while Republican views improved. However, in the expectations gauge, the Republican outlook crashed, and the Democratic outlook enhanced.
Over the next four years, customer sentiment stayed very low. Six months after Biden’s election, the customer sentiment index was nearly precisely where it had been before the election. Six months later, it was down almost 18 percent and headed even lower as the worst inflation in four decades gripped the country.

In other words, Americans are increasingly optimistic about the country and its economic scenario. While the data might show some bias based on political affiliation, it is clear that Republicans feel more favorable about politics than Democrats, who appear to be more downhearted about politics.

Contrasts with the last time Trump was elected president are more challenging since the University of Michigan’s customer study periodically measured partisan associations. So, we know how Republicans and Democrats felt in October 2016 (Democrats were a lot more favorable than Republicans) and in February 2017 (when Republicans were much more positive). Overall, customer belief rose following Trump’s election, with boosts in expectations and current conditions metrics.Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs is projecting a very good 2025 with a steady increase in the GDP and a continued fall in inflation. “The US economy is in a good place,” writes David Mericle, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs Research. “Recession fears have diminished, inflation is trending toward 2%, and the labor market has rebalanced but remains strong.”Goldman Sachs Research predicts that the US GDP will grow 2.5% on a full-year basis. That compares with 1.9%, the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.Meanwhile, the prospect of drastically cutting down the size of the administrative State and trimmiStateillions from the federal government has been denied for decades by the organized crime syndicate masquerading as the Democratic Party, whose frauds drained the public purse of hundreds of billions while the economy stagnated. 
Flash! Bang! Service Confidence Growsproductive pursuits may cause an economic boom of historic proportions.Moreover, the prospect of removing millions of illegal aliens whose presence adds nothing to the economy but damages it to the extent of 5 trillion yearly will add to this boom in the 1950s. When President Eisenhower removed nearly 2 million illegals, wages rose, productivity increased, and the economy boomed. Please think of the effect of removing 50 million illegals who drain our economy of 5 trillion in resources each year. Finally, the American people will enjoy the fruits of the tremendous increase in productivity.American services are also feeling more optimistic about the economy. The S&P Global “flash” composite buying managers index reached the highest level in 31 months, beating expectations. The services side of the survey reached a 32-month high, and the beleaguered production index reached a four-month high. Optimism about output staged a noteworthy comeback in November, rebounding for the 2nd straight month after striking a 23-month low in September. Self-confidence reached its highest level in May 2022, with an especially striking surge in the production sector, where optimism hit a 31-month peak.

“The service state of mind has brightened in November, with self-confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half-year high. The prospect of lower interest rates and a more pro-business approach from the incoming administration has fueled higher optimism, helping drive output and order book inflows greater in November,” stated Chris Williamson, chief service economic expert at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
As our good friends Larry Kudlow and David Malpass pointed out, there are signs of a “blue-collar boom.” Confidence in the production sector is increasing due to the potential benefits of domestic tariffs, causing a rise in factory work. While the Philadelphia Fed’s newest manufacturing study revealed weakness, there was a favorable boost in expectations and work indicators.

The numbers do not lie. Hope and self-confidence are back in style, and the economy is starting to feel it.