Demographics Are The Future

By John Burchard
December 26, 2024

A demographic pattern called the “Trump Baby Bump” has emerged in the United States and is poised to impact the country’s future significantly. Since 2004, researchers at the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) have been tracking a fascinating connection between birth rates and voting patterns in counties nationwide, discovering intriguing insights into how household dynamics influence electoral decisions.

The findings may not shock those reading this; however, it is assuring to observe when practical wisdom is supported by concrete proof. The higher birth rate of conservatives compared to liberals had a considerable impact on the year 2024.

The findings suggest that Trump received more assistance this year in locations with lower population density and fewer households than in blue urban counties.

In the 2024 election, individuals born between 2003 and 2006 had the opportunity to participate in the ballot process for the first time. A research study from the IFS indicates that counties favoring Trump, known as “red” counties, have significantly higher birth rates than “blue” counties supporting Kamala Harris. This relationship shows a clear and robust connection.
 
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The data shows that for a 10% boost in electing to elect Donald Trump this year, the fertility rate in that county was 0.09 infants over a woman’s lifetime. That might not sound like many children, but the distinction shows up hugely at the tail ends of county votes.For instance, in counties around Washington, D.C., the vote totals were 75% to 25% or more in favor of Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. In counties that heavily prefer Harris1, the typical overall fertility rate is 1.3. In counties where 75% or more of the vote went to Donald Trump, the median total fertility rate is 1.84.

While neither number is as high as the 2.1 total fertility rate required to sustain a population, that is a substantial distinction population-wide. The IFS data also shows that the connection between conservative and Republican voting rates is becoming more powerful.

A contrast of voting patterns and fertility rates exposes a noteworthy shift over the past decade. In the 2012 governmental election, counties with a 10% range in assistance for Mitt Romney had a relatively small distinction. Nevertheless, by 2024, this variation had grown considerably, with a 0.09 distinction in fertility between Republican-leaning and Democratic-leaning counties. This represents an 85% boost in the connection between many Republicans and higher birth-year duration.

According to the IFS, fertility rates can now be anticipated based on political celebration affiliation:
“Whereas in 201,2 simply 8% of the variance in fertility between counties was accounted for by vote share, that number has grown to 26% by 2024. Over a quarter of the difference in county fertility rates can be caused by political partisanship. Thee celebrations are divided by household.”

The average number of children per female in most Republican counties is 1.76. Counties with the highest proportion of independent votes have a somewhat lower average of votes, at 1.59. On the other hand, the countries that lean most strongly democratic have approximately 1.37 children per female, a rate that is even lower than the average of 1.46 in the socially progressive nations of the European Union.

No wonder the Democrat Party is so steadfastly attempting to replace the American population with ringers from the Third World. They’re not having babies, so they have to increase their numbers.

In other words, if we want to bring the nation forward favorably, we must keep doing more of what we’re doing. Promoting rewards for family development and having more children was a centerpiece of Donald Trump and JD Vance’s campaign. If we wish to continue this streak for many years, we must keep having infants!

This supplies some intriguing points to consider as you contemplate your New Year’s objectives.